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Open Access

Article Type

Nonlinear regression of AI-related publication growth in PubMed: a biomedical trend relevant to neuroscience

Hana A. Shriner, Jonghoon Kang

Author Affiliations

Valdosta State University, Department of Biology, 1500 N Patterson St., Valdosta, Georgia 31698, USA

DOI:

Abstract

This study quantitatively evaluated the historical development and possible future trajectory of artificial intelligence (AI)-related biomedical research indexed in PubMed. AI-related publications were defined as publications explicitly identifying major AI concepts in their titles or abstracts, encompassing both biomedical applications of AI and studies of AI as a scientific subject. Annual publication output remained low for several decades before increasing sharply, with the most pronounced acceleration occurring in recent years. Two alternative growth descriptions closely represented the observed trend but produced contrasting interpretations of the field’s developmental stage. One placed the period of maximum growth near 2025 and projected approximately 184,000 publications in 2035, whereas the other placed maximum growth near 2033 and projected approximately 359,000 publications in 2035. The latter description received greater relative statistical support, although its predicted long-term publication level was associated with substantial uncertainty. These findings demonstrate rapid expansion of AI-related biomedical research and are particularly relevant to neuroscience, where artificial intelligence increasingly intersects with the investigation and computational modeling of learning, perception, reasoning, decision-making, and other neural and cognitive functions. Continued monitoring will determine whether this growth begins to approach saturation or remains accelerated into the next decade.

Keywords

artificial intelligence; biomedical research; PubMed; bibliometrics; publication trends; nonlinear growth models

How to cite this article

artificial intelligence; biomedical research; PubMed; bibliometrics; publication trends; nonlinear growth models

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s). Published by Neural Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.

Disclaimer

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, Neural Press or the editors, and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

 

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